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Three years of high temperatures will mean we have breached 1.5°C

The aim to limit global warming to 1.5°C is based on long-term average temperatures, but analysis shows that if three years cross the threshold, it is almost certain that the target has been missed

By Madeleine Cuff

24 May 2024

Children cool off during a heatwave in Mexico City

Daniel Cardenas/Anadolu via Getty Images

Three individual years of high global average temperatures will be enough for scientists to conclude the 1.5°C climate goal is lost, a new analysis reveals.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, almost every nation in the world signed up to an international treaty promising to limit any rise in global average temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for just 1.5°C of warming.

Since then, the…

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